Mel Kiper Jr. has Fernando Mendoza's back amid doubts from Dan Orlovsky

As the 2026 NFL Draft draws nearer, Fernando Mendoza remains the overwhelming favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. Mendoza completed 72% of his passes while throwing for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns with just six interceptions to lead Indiana to a historic 16-0 season that culminated in a National Championship.

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Given his track record and elite skill set, the majority of draft analysts out there have Mendoza firmly as the QB1 in this year's draft class. However, ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky has spent the last few weeks casting major doubt on Mendoza being the top quarterback in the 2026 draft class.

Dan Orlovsky doubts Fernando Mendoza as QB1 in 2026 draft class

Instead, Orlovsky is hyping up Alabama QB Ty Simpson as the best quarterback in the 2026 class.

“I think Ty Simpson is QB1,” Orlovsky said on GetUp on Monday morning. “I think Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in this class. I think when you look at the body of work and what was asked of these two quarterbacks, you have to start with the question, who needed to do more to carry their football team to play well? Ty Simpson, and it’s not close. Between those two quarterbacks who took more games over throughout the course of the season? Ty Simpson, it’s not even close."

Orlovsky seems to be in the minority when it comes to this take.

Mel Kiper Jr. is a firm believer in Fernando Mendoza

On Tuesday, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. was asked about Orlovsky's comments about Simpson being QB1 in the 2026 draft class over Mendoza.

"That's not shared by anybody I've spoken to," said Kiper.

Kiper has Simpson as the No. 2 QB in the class, and still projects him as a late First Round pick. However, he doesn't see Simpson surpassing Mendoza as QB1 of the class. As it stands, Kiper has Mendoza firmly in the No. 1 spot on his big board, with Simpson coming in at No. 25.

Kiper notes that Mendoza's 6'5" frame is four inches bigger than Simpson, and mentions that Mendoza is far more experienced and can make all the necessary NFL-level throws. Simpson didn't start until this past season, while Mendoza has three years of collegiate starting experience. Furthermore, Mendoza's completion percentage of 72% was far better than Simpson's 64.5% this season.

Barring any wild unforeseen circumstances, Mendoza will be the 1st overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. The NFL Draft takes place from April 23-25 in Pittsburgh.