Early CFP projections prove Indiana's days as an underdog are over

The expectations have been raised for the 2026 season
Jan 24, 2026; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti holds up the coaches trophy on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, during the Indiana Football College Football Playoff National Championship celebration and parade at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images
Jan 24, 2026; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti holds up the coaches trophy on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, during the Indiana Football College Football Playoff National Championship celebration and parade at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

For Indiana football to get any level of respect, the Hoosiers needed to complete a 16-0 season with a Heisman Trophy quarterback. But now that respect has been earned, the pressure of staying at the top becomes greater.

And that's why Brad Crawford's way-too-early College Fooball Playoff 12-team bracket is a blessing and a curse for Curt Cignetti and his program. Indiana is predicted to be a No. 4 seed, which would earn the Hoosiers a first-round bye and mean they would likely repeat as Big Ten Champions.

The Hoosiers would join Miami, Notre Dame and Texas as the top four seeds. There are some logistical issues with this bracket — mainly Miami and Notre Dame play each other in November, and it's unlikely that if the Irish lost that game, they would be a No. 2 seed, but whatever, it's a bracket created seven months before the season begins simply designed to get us talking. It's much like the FanDuel odds that have Indiana tied with Texas and Ohio State for the second-best odds to win another CFP championship, 

Indiana in early CFP predictions is ultimately a good thing

Like I said above, this is a blessing and a curse. It's a blessing because Indiana football has really arrived. Cignetti and the Hoosiers have the respect of college football now. They aren't considered one-hit wonders and there's no reason to think Cignetti can't continue to win in Bloomington with the support system that's been built around him.

It's a curse because the underdog days are over. The Hoosiers were a fun story in 2024 and an amazing one in 2025, but now they can no longer play the role of David. Indiana is officially one of the Goliaths in the sport and that's ok, because that's what Cignetti wants Indiana football to be. The 2025 season will always be magical. It will always be the topic of a Disney movie. But it's more fun when the expectations are high. 

Cignetti knows that Indiana is going to get everyone's best shot in 2026, and he wouldn't have it any other way.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations