Indiana, Curt Cignetti have CFP eating out of the palms of their hands in this format

Through the first two years of the 12-team College Football Playoff, no program has been better than the Indiana Hoosiers. Not only are they one of four teams to make it in both years, but they just won the national championship. Even more impressive, the three other teams who made it in both years in Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon have all lost national quarterfinal games as the higher-seeded team.

So with the College Football Playoff staying at 12 teams for another season, Indiana is so loving this!

According to On3's Chris Low, Brett McMurphy, and Pete Nakos, while the 12-team playoff will remain the same size, there will be a few stipulations put in place into the 2026-27 season. The field will not expand in 2026, but auto bids will go to each Power 4 champion, regardless of ranking. Notre Dame is guaranteed an at-large bid if ranked in the top 12 of the final CFP poll." So what does this mean for IU?

With all four Power Four champions getting auto-bids, as well as Notre Dame getting one too, should the Fighting Irish finish ranked inside of the top 12, it really means that Indiana is sitting cozy in the new ivory tower of college football, watching the pawns duke it out for the last spots in. Indiana has been a top-four team in the Big Ten the last two years. If it remains that, the Hoosiers will be golden.

Let's now unpack how Indiana and Curt Cignetti has the playoff eating out of the palm of their hands.

Indiana has cracked the College Football Playoff code under Curt Cignetti

For those who need some understanding of how these new rules would have impacted last year's playoff field, get a load of this, y'all! Because Duke won the ACC, the Blue Devils would have been the No. 12 seed instead of James Madison. Tulane would still be the No. 11 seed as the Group of Five champion. But because Notre Dame finished ranked No. 11, they would have taken Miami's spot???

Rather than spend another second on how moronically dumb that is, let's get this thing back on the tracks regarding Indiana real quick then... In this adjusted playoff format, we know the Power Four champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) and the Group of Five winner will get auto-bids. Over the last two playoffs, the Big Ten and SEC have gotten in seven combined teams and then eight this past year.

To make this simpler, let's just say of the seven at-large bids, four of them will go to the Big Ten and the SEC at minimum annually. It would take a historically down year for the Big Ten and SEC to not get three teams into the playoff annually in this current iteration. Assuming Notre Dame finishes 10-2 in a season, they will be a top-12 seed and will get in, regardless of if the Irish even deserve to be there...

So five plus four plus one in a good Notre Dame season gives us 10 teams. Only two at-large spots remain. The ACC got two teams in in 2024, but only one last year. The Big 12 has only gotten its champion in up to this point. So we can probably forecast that one of the last two at-large bids in a good Notre Dame season would go to either the fourth-best team in either the Big Ten or the SEC.

To tie a bow on this back to Indiana, as long as the Hoosiers do not lose any non-conference games, they will make the playoff annually with a 10-2 or better record. That mark is good enough to be the fourth-best team in the Big Ten annually, maybe even the third-best team in some years. Indiana will get some of that sweet Notre Dame exceptionalism thrown its way by winning seven league games.

Ultimately, Indiana has figured out that the Selection Committee will not punish your team for having a weak non-conference, so long as you play in a Power Two league and win 10 games annually. To go far in the playoff, you must have a well-coached team, as well as having the right mix of players. You need players who have played a lot of college football, but ones who the sport has overlooked a bit.

Repeating is hard, but if anybody can do it in the 12-team playoff era, Indiana will have that chance.