After suffering yet another disappointing loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday, Indiana's hopes of qualifying for the NCAA Tournament took a significant nose dive.
The Hoosiers are 1-6 in their last seven games, and have no further chances to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. At this point, all the Hoosiers can do is sit back and hope other bubble teams falter down the stretch and potentially leave the door open for IU to sneak into the big dance.
Jon Rothstein says the quiet part out loud for Indiana hoops after Northwestern loss
However, Indiana's tournament hopes took another hit on Thursday morning with a shocking upset in the MAC Tournament. UMass defeated Miami 87-83 in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament in Cleveland, handing the RedHawks their first loss of the season and dropping them to 31-1.
UMass' upset over Miami pushes Indiana futher down the wrong side of the bubble
Up until this point, the MAC has been a one-bid league throughout the bracket projections from ESPN's Joe Lunardi. With Miami suffering its first loss of the season, Lunardi now has the MAC slated as a two-bid league in his latest March Madness Bracketology projection.
Thus, Lunardi is essentially penciling in Miami with an at-large bid on top of the MAC Tournament champion also qualifying for the 68-team field. That scenario spells bad news for Indiana, who moves further down the wrong side of the bubble with Miami featured in the "Last Four In" category and Indiana in the "First Four Out" category.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 12, 2026
Hoosiers have had plenty of chances to boost NCAA Tournament resume
At this point, Indiana would be extremely lucky to sneak into the NCAA Tournament field. Darian DeVries' team has had chance after chance to prove to the selection committee that they are worthy of a tournament spot, but the Hoosiers stumbled mightily down the stretch and simply didn't look like a tournament team when it mattered most.
On February 9, the Hoosiers were 17-8 on the season and were 8-6 in Big Ten play. They had won five of their last six games and were looking like they were about to waltz in to the NCAA Tournament without issue.
Unfortunately, a four-game losing streak consisting of a 20-point loss to Illinois, a 29-point loss to Purdue, a four-point home loss to Northwestern, and a 13-point loss to Michigan State sent IU's tournament hopes spiraling. After a win over Minnesota on Senior Night, Indiana then lost by 13 to Ohio State in the regular season finale and by 13 to Northwestern again in the Big Ten Tournament.
Given those performances, along with a 3-10 record in Quad 1 games and a 4-4 record in Quad 2 games, the Hoosiers are lucky to even be in the NCAA Tournament conversation. Massive struggles from other bubble teams have kept IU's tournament hopes alive, but the MAC being a two-bid league would make it extremely difficult for the Hoosiers to get a spot.