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Raiders win-loss predictions are sleeping on Fernando Mendoza’s NFL readiness

Fernando Mendoza and the Raiders are getting no love in NFL.com's preseason record predictions.
May 20, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) stretches during organized team activities at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images
May 20, 2026; Henderson, NV, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) stretches during organized team activities at Intermountain Health Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-Imagn Images | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Fernando Mendoza is set to begin his NFL career looking to help rebuild the Las Vegas Raiders franchise. The Raiders have a strong history of success, but have fallen on tough times in recent seasons.

Last year, Las Vegas was the worst team in the NFL by posting a record of 3-14. That gave them the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which they unsurprisingly used to select Mendoza.

The Raiders made several other solid draft additions and re-tooled their roster with some veteran free agent signings on both sides of the ball. Under new head coach Klint Kubiak, things could be looking up.

However, some NFL pundits out there aren't sold on what the Raiders are building around Mendoza.

Raiders get no love in win/loss projections from NFL.com

NFL.com's Ali Bhanpuri & Tom Blair have predicted all 272 games on the 2026 schedule, and they don't seem to be too confident in Las Vegas' chances to rack up the wins this season. Bhanpuri projects the Raiders to finish with a 4-13 record, while Blair seems them finishing with the same 3-14 record they posted this past season.

Bhanpuri points to there being too many question marks for the Raiders entering 2026 to predict a multi-win improvement.

"Will Vegas' offseason spending spree vastly improve its defense? When will Klint Kubiak notch his first win as a head coach? How short of a leash will Kirk Cousins have as QB1? And how quickly will Fernando Mendoza acclimate to NFL game speed if/when he gets his chance? Is Maxx Crosby still on the team after the trade deadline? Simply too many questions surround this squad to project a winning season, but it's possible if all the new pieces coalesce quickly that the Raiders rally off a couple more wins than we think."
Ali Bhanpuri

Bhanpuri raises some legitimate questions, as there are still several unknowns surrounding the Raiders heading into Year 1 of the Kubiak era. However, he doesn't mention the offseason roster upgrades that Las Vegas has made.

Offensively, the Raiders brought in C Tyler Linderbaum, WR Jalen Naylor, and 14-year NFL QB Kirk Cousins. Cousins could be the perfect mentor for Mendoza as he begins his NFL career, while Linderbaum is one of the best centers in the NFL. Naylor is an under-the-radar receiver who could be on breakout watch. On the defensive side of the ball, Las Vegas signed LB Quay Walker, LB Nakobe Dean, DE Kwity Paye, CB Eric Stokes, and DE Malcolm Koonce, while also trading for CB Taron Johnson.

Given all of those roster upgrades, as well as solid offensive weapons consisting of RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers, and the Raiders should be able to improve on their 3-14 season from last year. Furthermore, Bhanpuri underestimates Fernando Mendoza's NHL readiness.

Fernando Mendoza is primed for a strong rookie NFL season

Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza is already making a strong impact in Las Vegas. Kubiak has plenty of great things to say about his No. 1 overall pick, saying he's been "as advertised."

"He has not disappointed. He's working his tail off. It's very important to him that he asks a lot of great questions when he gets on the field. He's no B.S.; he's all ball...Anything that you put in front of him, he's going to attack it. Anything new, he spends extra time on. You can tell he fixes things from one day to the next."
Klint Kubiak

Kubiak's comments come as no surprise to Indiana football fans. The Hoosier faithful are quite familiar with Mendoza's work ethic off the field. Along with those intangibles, Mendoza possesses an elite football IQ, pin-point accuracy, strong athleticism, and NFL-ready frame at 6'5" 230 pounds.

Throw all of those qualities together and you have one of the best QB prospects we've seen in recent years. It remains to be seen when Mendoza will make his first NFL start, but when it happens, he seems to be in a great spot to help the Raiders improve on last year's 3-14 record. It would be rather surprising to see Las Vegas win only three or four games like Bhanpuri and Blair predict.

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