Wednesday night's matchup against Northwestern was a must-win game for the Indiana Hoosiers. Entering the Big Ten Tournament with losses in five of their last six regular season games, Darian DeVries' team was in desperate need of a Big Ten Tournament win over the 14-18 Wildcats.
Northwestern delivers devastating blow to Indiana’s March Madness hopes
After taking a 37-36 lead into the locker room at halftime, the Hoosiers were thoroughly dominated in the final 20 minutes. They came out of the break extremely cold, and had just two made field goals in the first 10 minutes of the 2nd half. They were out-scored 38-24 in the 2nd half en route to a crushing 13-point loss.
The loss sends Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes spiraling, which is evident in the latest bracket projection from ESPN's Joe Lunardi.
Indiana's spot in Joe Lunardi's latest bracket projection is no surprise
Entering Wednesday's matchup against Northwestern, Lunardi had Indiana listed among teams in the "Last Four In" category in his bracketology projection. But following yet another disappointing loss, the Hoosiers are now on the outside looking in.
Lunardi released another bracket projection on Wednesday night following the conclusion of the IU/Northwestern game, and the Hoosiers are now listed among the teams in the "First Four Out" category.
New Mexico, Stanford, and San Diego State join IU in the "First Four Out" category, while Missouri, VCU, SMU, and Auburn occupy the group of "Last Four In" teams.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 12, 2026
The move shouldn't come to a surprise to Indiana basketball fans, as the cream and crimson didn't do themselves any favors by losing once again to Northwestern. The Wildcats finished 15th out of 18 teams in the Big Ten during the regular season, and Indiana has now lost to the Wildcats twice over the last two and a half weeks.
Indiana is just 3-11 in Quad 1 games this season, and Wednesday's loss drops IU to 3-3 in Quad 2 games. While a lot has yet to be decided in regard to the 68-team tournament field, those types of numbers aren't going to wow the selection committee. To make matters worse, Indiana has now lost six of its last seven games, and is playing its worst basketball of the season and the most important time.
At this point, Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support. It seems that the Hoosiers likely need plenty of help from other bubble teams struggling in their respective conference tournaments in order to sneak into the big dance.