Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes take a big hit as other bubble team pulls major upset

Santa Clara delivered one of the biggest results of Championship Week by upsetting No. 21 Saint Mary's, which puts a serious damper on Indiana's NCAA Tournament hopes.
Feb 24, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian DeVries reacts to a play against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
Feb 24, 2026; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Darian DeVries reacts to a play against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Indiana Hoosiers' NCAA Tournament fate has yet to be decided. The Hoosiers are one of several teams still on the bubble during Championship Week, and will need to put together a strong showing in Chicago at the Big Ten Tournament in order to boost their resume as much as possible before Selection Sunday.

Darian DeVries makes painfully obvious comments about Indiana's Big Ten struggles this season

The unfortunate part about Indiana's current situation is that Darian DeVries' team may not be fully in control of their own destiny. Indiana is just 9-11 in Big Ten play and 3-11 in Quad 1 games this season. In addition, the Hoosiers dropped five of their last six regular season games down the stretch. That kind of performance leaves IU vulnerable to potential bid-stealers during conference tournaments.

In other words, IU's late-season struggles leave the door open for other bubble teams to impress the committee before Selection Sunday. On Monday night, Indiana's tournament hopes to a hit with a fellow bubble team pulling off a pivotal upset.

Santa Clara's upset over Saint Mary's hurts IU's NCAA Tournament hopes

On Monday, Indiana was a part of the "First Four Out" category in Joe Lunardi's March Madness bracket projection. Santa Clara was a team Indiana was chasing, as the Broncos were featured in the "Last Four In" category.

However, Santa Clara's monster 76-71 upset over No. 21 Saint Mary's on Monday night could be enough for Santa Clara to earn a tournament bid. The Broncos have now earned a spot in the conference championship game against Gonzaga and strengthened their case for the NCAA Tournament even more.

The WCC has consistently been a two-bid league over the past several years with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. But after Santa Clara's stunning upset over the Gaels, it's almost certain that the WCC will send three teams to the NCAA Tournament this season.

Despite the loss, Saint Mary's is still looking good for the big dance, and Gonzaga is essentially a lock to make the 68-team field. Santa Clara got the signature win it needed, and now seems to be well on the way to a tournament appearance.

That means that bubble teams like Indiana are now faced with even more pressure in Championship Week. Every game carries enormous weight, and the Hoosiers cannot afford much room for error if they want to go dancing.

The Hoosiers are the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and will play either No. 18 Penn State or No. 15 Northwestern on Wednesday, March 11 in the second round. That game is about as must-win as it gets for IU. The winner of that game will then face No. 7 Purdue in the third round. Winning that game would also be extremely advantageous to Indiana's NCAA Tournament resume.

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