Curt Cignetti wins. Just Google him.
The signature words from Cignetti's introductory press conference two and a half years go continue to ring true. Over his two seasons at the helm of the Indiana football program, a lot of winning has taken place. Specifically, Cignetti has led the Hoosiers to an overall record of 27-2 as well as a Big Ten title and historic National Championship.
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Indiana has lost just a single regular season game with Cignetti leading the way, and the Cream and Crimson are well-positioned to do a lot more winning this season. Plenty of intriguing matchups await, and the Hoosiers should find themselves favored in the vast majority of their games this season.
Predicting every Indiana outcome in 2026-27
Without further ado, here are the win probabilities we are associating with every game on Indiana's schedule this season.
Game 1: vs. North Texas
Win Probability: 100%
The Mean Green of North Texas put together a 9-2 campaign last season and possessed one of college football's most prolific offenses. QB Drew Mestemaker led the country with 4,379 passing yards, and UNT put up an NCAA-leading 45.1 points per game. But over the offseason the North Texas program was completely decimated.
Head coach Eric Morris took the Oklahoma State job, and took plenty of talent with him -- including Mestemaker. Now the Mean Green are starting over with new head coach Neal Brown. Given the expansive overhaul UNT's program has seen, Indiana should take care of business in this one. The Hoosier are favored by 40.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, showing how much faith professional oddsmakers have in the Hoosiers in their season opener.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Game 2: vs. Howard
Win Probability: 100%
Indiana's Week 2 matchup against Howard serves as an automatic tune-up game for the Hoosiers. This game should never be in doubt.
Game 3: vs. Western Kentucky
Win Probability: 100%
The Hoosiers should be 3-0 in the non-conference slate. Anything less would be shocking to say the least.
Game 4: vs. Northwestern
Win Probability: 95%
Indiana's Big Ten slate begins with a home matchup against Northwestern on Friday, September 25. The Wildcats have been a middling Big Ten team under head coach David Braun, as they've gone 11-16 in conference play over his three seasons. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly presents an interesting challenge, but Indiana should be able to find the win column with relative ease in this one.
Game 5: at Rutgers
Win Probability: 90%
Indiana's first road game of the season comes in Week 5 on October 3. Not much is expected of Rutgers this season after a 5-7 season from a year ago. Greg Schiano has won more than 3 Big Ten games just once over the course of 6 seasons during his second stint with the Scarlet Knights. IU cruises.
Game 6: at Nebraska
Win Probability: 90%
The matchup against Nebraska presents an intriguing scheduling dynamic for the Hoosiers. After playing in Piscataway against Rutgers, a trip to Lincoln the following week gives Indiana its only set to back-to-back road games this season. Indiana throttled Nebraska by a score of 56-7 back in 2024, and the Hoosiers have only continued to get better while the Cornhuskers have suffered multiple setbacks under Matt Rhule. Lincoln is a tough place to play, but when it gets down to the nitty gritty, Indiana is the far superior team.
Game 7: vs. Ohio State
Win Probability: 45%
This is undoubtedly Indiana's hardest game of the season, and it could be the Game of the Year in all of college football. In a matchup between the last two National Champions, the October 17 matchup between the Hoosiers and Buckeyes has instant classic written all over it. It's very possible that both teams are ranked in the top-5 of the AP Poll, which makes this game a bit of a toss-up. Indiana has the home field advantage, but Ohio State will be fired up looking for revenge. For now, we'll give Indiana a 45% chance to win this one.
Game 8: at Michigan
Win Probability: 75%
No matter what happens against Ohio State, the Hoosiers have little time to rest. That's because a trip to Ann Arbor comes the following week. The Wolverines are a bit of a wild card, but they are a team to keep an eye on in the Big Ten. Kyle Whittingham brings much more stability to Ann Arbor, and with Bryce Underwood entering his sophomore season, Cignetti's first trip to The Big House could present some challenges.
Game 9: vs. Minnesota
Win Probability: 90%
Minnesota went 7-0 at home last season, but 0-5 on the road. Road woes have been a common theme for P.J. Fleck at Minnesota, and things won't get any easier as the Golden Gophers head to Bloomington on Halloween night. The Hoosiers should take care of business.
Game 10: vs. USC
Win Probability: 65%
Lincoln Riley's tenure at USC has been wildly underwhelming, but this team could be his best in Southern California. However, until USC shows us something different from what we've seen in Riley's tenure so far, the Trojans shouldn't be expected to win thee types of big games. The Trojans are tasked with traveling across the country (and two time zones) for this matchup in Bloomington, which gives the Hoosiers a strong advantage.
Game 11: at Washington
Win Probability: 55%
Washington is a program on the rise, and Husky Stadium is never an easy place to play. Jedd Fisch is entering his 3rd year in Seattle, and he led the Huskies from a 6-win season in 2024 to a 9-win season a year ago. QB Demond Williams is back, and his dynamic skill set gives Indiana a lot to worry about. This is Indiana's longest road trip of the season in terms of distance, and may be their toughest road test on the gridiron as well.
Game 12: vs. Purdue
Win Probability: 99%
122-3. That's the combined score of the matchups for the Old Oaken Bucket over the last two seasons with Cignetti leading the way for Indiana. With Purdue struggling to get out of the cellar of the Big Ten, Indiana fans are looking for another convincing victory over the Boilermakers on November 28.
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