2026 NFL Draft: Move Over Arch Manning, Nussmeier, Klubnik: Why Fernando Mendoza is the No. 1 QB in the country

There's number of top tier prospects at the quarterback position in the class eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft. That list includes Texas' Arch Manning, Penn State's Drew Allar, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers and Clemson's Cade Klubnik, but Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is a recent riser who holds plenty of upside and could potentially be the No. 1 quarterback selected in this year's upcoming NFL Draft.

Mendoza appeared in 20 career games with 19 starts over the three seasons he spent with the California Golden Bears. He finished his career as the program’s all-time leader in completion percentage (66.4%) and tied for 7th in 250-yard passing games, tying Cal legends Gale Gilbert and Aaron Rodgers.

Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns, 6 interceptions for the California Golden Bears. He also ran for 105 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground in 2024.His 2024 season produced just the ninth 3,000-yard passing season in Cal history (3,004 yards) and a berth in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Key Stats for Fernando Mendoza via Sharp Football Analysis:

• On-target rate was 7.4% above expected based on route-adjusted data
• Took a sack on 26% of his dropbacks versus pressure, ranked 61st out of 68 qualified Power Four quarterbacks. 
• 59% on-target rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield
• Took a traditional drop-back at a 30% rate (NFL average: 60%)
• 14% sack rate on traditional drop-backs, ranked dead last among qualified Power Four quarterbacks

“You can tell right off the bat that he is a super smart kid and obviously at quarterback that is what you need,” said projected starting center and Notre Dame transfer Pat Coogan this spring. “I have never watched him take a math test or anything, but you can just tell from talking to him and being around him all the time he is a super intelligent guy.”

Here’s what ESPN's Jordan Reid says about Mendoza’s chance to go No. 1 at the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh next April:

Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%

Why he could be the top pick: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, where he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti’s offense and was drafted in the seventh round of this past draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even higher.

“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC area scout said. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”

My take and scouting report on Mendoza:

Let’s start with Mendoza's physical tools, where the Cal transfer is well-equipped. He stands at 6’5″, 225 pounds, he is a very good athlete with a strong frame. With his mobility, he can sidestep rushers, escape the pocket, and produce on the ground. He also has elite competitive toughness. Mendoza is clutch in crucial moments, and he plays through injuries, behind one of the worst offensive lines in Power 4 football in 2024.

Fernando Mendoza is a primary pocket passer whose experience in a pro-style attack and ability to win inside of structure should present the opportunity to compete for snaps at the NFL level.

Footwork and overall fundamentals at the position are pro-ready, headlined by calm and quiet movements that maintain balance and sync well with route concepts.

Mendoza will need to show growth in 2025 in Mike Shannah and Curt Cignetti's offense at Indiana. Mendoza is a confident passer and throws the best deep ball in the class but will need to cut down on the hero ball throws deep down field.

I expect a huge jump as Mendoza is entering his junior season, he could enter the NFL Draft in 2027 but is likely to enter the draft in 2026 as he is one of the top prospects in the class.

What makes him stand over other quarterbacks like Manning, Klubnik, Allar, Sellers, Beck and the rest of the group is that Mendoza is polished, with upside and has no glaring holes in his game. Manning is not polished, Sellers is raw and injury prone, Klubnik seems like a maxed out prospect with not as much upside and Allar and Beck are both inconsistent and average in the clutch. Mendoza checks all the boxes but has more room to go, we shall see where he lands among the top of the QB rankings throughout the season.