Early Bracketology reports have the Big Ten Conference trending upward this week including a few teams featured in the AP Top 25. Those who are not, still have had a great week.
It’s no secret that it seems like the Big Ten Conference has hit a bit of a down year. Last year at this time 5 of the 14 teams were featured in the AP Top 25 rankings. Two of which, Iowa and Maryland, were inside the top 10 rankings. Even outside the Top 25, the Big Ten Conference had bubble teams.
Comparatively going into Week 12 of 2016-17 season, the Big Ten Conference only features 3 teams. No. 15 Wisconsin, No. 20 Purdue, and No. 22 Maryland. Although this may be true, quite a few teams have shown signs of life and possible tournament potential.
Presently No. 22 Maryland have been arguably the hottest team of late in the Big Ten. Led by junior guard Melo Trimble, the Terrapins have grabbed three of their last four wins have come on the road (Michigan, Illinois, Iowa). They have won four straight games and have yet to lose a road game this season.
Surprisingly Northwestern beat Ohio State Sunday for the first time in 40 years. They notch the road win and continue to streak with four straight wins. The Wildcats look to receive their first NCAA Tournament bid for the first time in school history.
Accordingly, Indiana followed suit with a phenomenal week – a buzzer beating win against Penn State on the road, and a strong offensive showing in their home win against Michigan State. Junior guard James Blackmon Jr. was even named Co-Player of the Week in the Big Ten Conference with Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ.
Top 25 is not be all end all…
Even with just three teams in the Top 25 from the Big Ten, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has put as many as 8 teams from the conference in the round of 68 this year. His latest poll shows the following teams making the tournament and their projected seed:
No. 5 seeds
No. 15 Wisconsin (16-3, 5-1), No. 20 Purdue (16-4, 5-2)
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No. 6 seed
No. 7 seeds
Indiana (14-6, 4-3), Michigan State (12-8, 4-3)
No. 8 seeds
Northwestern (16-4, 5-2), Minnesota (15-5, 3-4)
No. 12 seed
The Big Ten Conference could see anywhere from 6-8 teams when it’s all set and done in March. While the conference currently only has 3 top-25 teams, Lunardi’s suggestion that 8 teams will make the tournament puts them behind the ACC (10) for most teams in March.
Top dogs in the Big Ten…
No. 15 Wisconsin and No. 20 Purdue are by far the superior teams in the Big Ten this year. Some of the best players in the conference come from both of these teams including Caleb Swanigan, Nigel Hayes, and Ethan Happ.
Both teams are winning games and by a large margin. Purdue and Wisconsin sit at the top of the leader board for margin of victory +17.1 and +15.2 respectively. Purdue has one of the best scoring teams in the Big Ten, averaging 82.1 points per game. Wisconsin dominates as one of the best rebounding teams in the conference and in the country.
Say what you want about Maryland’s strength of schedule this season, one thing is for certain. They close games out better than any team in the Big Ten. Maryland has been involved in 10 games so far this season decided by 6 points or less. They are 8-2 in those games. They have yet to lose on the road, 4-0, and are quietly being led by junior guard Melo Trimble (17.1 ppg).
Potential for more…
Teams like Northwestern continue their win streak they could find themselves in the Top 25 within a week. They could very well pick up two crucial wins this week at home against Nebraska and Indiana.
Nebraska has beaten two of the highly respected teams in the Big Ten Conference this year already. If Northwestern can grab two key wins at home this week they are sure to be in the Top 25 come the next week. I’m sure Coach Collins and the Wildcats can live comfortably as a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Indiana has found their stride winning three straight games after starting conference play 1-3. The loss to sophomore O.G. Anunoby is devastating, but James Blackmon Jr. has proved since Anunoby’s absence that he can lead this team to another tournament birth. Indiana will go as far as Blackmon will take them with his offensive dominance. The young guns of Indiana have proven to step up in critical situations such as a loss to one of their best players.
A defensive turn around for Indiana has sparked the winning streak. They will be tested this week taking on Michigan and Northwestern on the road. All things considered, if Indiana can rally two major wins on the road they might just be back in the Top 25 once again.
Staying in the hunt…
Meanwhile Michigan State, Minnesota, and Michigan have all had their share of quality wins this season.
Michigan State has had arguably the most difficult schedule in the Big Ten this year. Not just in the Big Ten but in the country, they rank No. 13 in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Losses to five Top-25 teams including Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, and Arizona. They beat Minnesota, a team looking for a tournament bid, twice this season and a win against Northwestern are nice but not enough. Michigan State dropped two straight to Ohio State and Indiana. They will need a big time win soon, maybe against their next opponent No. 20 Purdue, to try and stay in tournament talks come March.
The Golden Gophers knocked off then-No. 15 Purdue, Northwestern, and Ohio State to start conference play at 3-1. Since then, they have lost three straight. Their second loss to Michigan State this year and two games that were decided by one bucket. A loss to Penn State 52-50 and a loss to then-No. 14 Wisconsin 72-70. The Gophers have had one of the more difficult schedules in the Big Ten, if they can claim a few more wins and snap this losing streak they have the potential to continue to be a tournament team.
Next: Keys to victory for Indiana vs. Michigan
Furthermore the last team in is the Wolverines. Lunardi suspects they will be playing in their second straight “First Four” game in the round of 68. They hang around with plenty of quality games left to play. Over the next five weeks they will face Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana (x2), Michigan State (x2), and Minnesota. All games in which Michigan could use to capitalize their tournament stock. An RPI of 67 is enough for Michigan to stay in the conversation. They are 0-4 against teams with an RPI of 1-25, 2-6 against those 26-50.