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Indiana Basketball vs North Carolina SWEET 16 Game Preview

By Brian Denburg

Feb 11, 2016; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers forward Collin Hartman (30) attempts to pass the ball to Indiana Hoosiers guard Yogi Ferrell (11) during the second period of the game at Assembly Hall. Indiana Hoosiers defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes 85 to 78. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 11, 2016; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers forward Collin Hartman (30) attempts to pass the ball to Indiana Hoosiers guard Yogi Ferrell (11) during the second period of the game at Assembly Hall. Indiana Hoosiers defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes 85 to 78. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports /
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Game info:

Indiana Hoosiers (27-7) vs North Carolina Tar Heels (30-6)

Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

When: Friday, March 25 at about 9:57 pm ET on TBS

Line: North Carolina -5.5

Friday night presents Indiana basketball with a chance to move on to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2002, when it lost the National Championship game to then-ACC member Maryland.

North Carolina presents Indiana with arguably the toughest challenge in regards to making it out of the East Region. Considering both second and third-seeded Xavier and  West Virginia, respectively, have been eliminated IU would likely have a much easier time in the Elite Eight then it will with North Carolina.

That’s where we are going to start off: Indiana is the underdog in this game. A win would be spectacular and could easily result in a trip to Houston for the Final Four, but a loss wouldn’t shock anyone.  Although Indiana is the underdog in Vegas and according to various media outlets, North Carolina forward Brice Johnson claims that North Carolina is and has been the underdog all year. The meaning of underdog is usually the team that is overmatched. If North Carolina, who is a one seed in the NCAA tournament, was a pre-season number one team, and ACC regular/tournament champs is an underdog then I don’t want to know what the his definition of what a favorite is.  Let’s move on from that and preview the game:

North Carolina is a matchup nightmare for everyone in the country:

North Carolina presents Indiana with a different animal than the Hoosiers have seen all season. North Carolina thrives on the offensive glass, rebounding 39.9 percent of its misses (good for 4th in the country).  The charge on the offensive glass is led by senior Brice Johnson (mentioned above) who is the leader of the revolving monster that is the North Carolina frontcourt.  Kennedy Meeks combined with Johnson provides arguably the best shot-blocking frontcourt in the country.

Outside of guards Marcus Paige and Joel Berry, every significant contributor is 6’6″ or taller.  The biggest area of concern for Indiana on Friday night will be keeping North Carolina off the offensive glass, limiting multiple-shot possessions. If Indiana can limit second chances it will have a very good chance of pulling the upset.

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North Carolina’s backcourt could be its demise 

Great frontcourt and defensive play has led North Carolina to one of its best seasons of recent memory, but the Tar Heel backcourt can be exposed.  North Carolina as a team shoots 53.8 percent from two point range, which is one of the best rates in the country.  The issue with the North Carolina offense is its poor shooting from behind the arc. While North Carolina doesn’t rely on the three ball directly for its offensive success it does rely on the three ball for long rebounds and second chances in the paint.  The three ball is almost a pass at times for the offense especially when it has a height advantage.

The guards don’t only limit the UNC offense from behind the arc, but also limits its defense by letting others shoot over 35 percent from deep.  This could be the critical matchup that Indiana can exploit.

How IU wins

Indiana will need to expose the issues at guard for North Carolina. Yogi Ferrell will need to be a force shooting along with distributing by creating open looks for shooters.

I’d look to see if Tom Crean goes with a strategy similar to what he did against Purdue, by bringing bigs like Thomas Bryant and Max Bielfeldt outside of the arc to open up the middle for the guards and the likes of Troy Williams to slash through.

Defensively Indiana may look to use a 2-3 zone. The issue with the 2-3 zone and Indiana is that the Hoosiers aren’t particularly great at it. But the 2-3 zone could turn the Tar Heels into a three-point shooting team, which is exactly what Crean and IU want going into Friday. Odds are if a Roy Williams-coached team wants to penetrate the 2-3 zone in the paint it will likely be able to considering Indiana doesn’t play the 2-3 zone too often.

The other item to look at is both teams play at a fast pace. Both like to get up and down the court while running in transition.  This could result in a shoot-out, which may put Indiana at an advantage. North Carolina could also prove to be too big for Indiana and it’ll make up for UNC’s inefficiencies offensively and defensively behind the arc. The conditioning of the Hoosiers will be big as they will need to be able to body up against the oversized UNC front court.

Indiana will also need to be somewhat healthy. Robert Johnson was listed as “iffy” according to Crean.  Juwan Morgan will also be needed as a body to defend and rebound in the likely event that Thomas Bryant gets into foul trouble.

If Indiana isn’t healthy if can still win, but it will take incredible efforts from all those who are still healthy and a hot Yogi.

Prediction:

I think that if Johnson and Morgan play fully healthy Indiana will edge North Carolina by hitting threes and rebounding well enough to keep UNC from getting extended possessions. However, with the uncertainty regarding Johnson and Morgan it is tough to pick IU.

North Carolina 76, Indiana 68

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