Indiana’s seeding was unjustified and unwarranted. Now, I’m mad online. Even in that state of anger, I recognize that there is still hope.
After an extremely long and drawn out Selection Sunday, we all now know that Indiana will find itself in a rather difficult scenario come the start of the NCAA Tournament. The fact that Indiana is in thisscenario is a whole other argument that I simply don’t have the mental fortitude to get into right now. The only proper way to react to IU’s seeding is just a simple, “WHAAAAAAATTT? But…But…WHHHHHHHYYYYYY?!?!”
With that said, all one can really do is move on and look forward. In all honesty, seeding can’t really be considered too important anyway, because no team is making the Final Four without defeating at least a few good basketball teams.
Now, when looking at IU’s case, there are definitely more than a few good basketball teams that can cause IU problems. The most important thing to consider when looking at the East Region is how Indiana matches up specifically against each team.
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For example, I would be more concerned with a match-up against West Virginia than I would North Carolina. My reasoning behind that comes purely from style of play. West Virginia is one of the best up-tempo teams in the country and I don’t feel comfortable with Indiana pitting its up-tempo offense against a team that does it better than them. UNC on the other hand offers more balance, and is a little undersized. The Heels are an incredibly talented team that justifiably earned the one seed, but against Indiana I have faith in Yogi’s ability to find Thomas Bryant down low and penetrate as he pleases.
So, as Indiana plans to begin its journey to a potential Final Four bid, let’s look at the East Region and all the teams that can possibly get in Indiana’s way.
To preface this, I’m not going to be discussing all the teams in the East. If Indiana does end up playing against Weber State in the Elite Eight feel free to write me hate mail. Go for it.
Now, when looking at the East Region as a whole, the biggest concern is clearly the overall point guard. With dominant point guards such as Kris Dunn, Tyler Ulis, Marcus Paige, and Derrick Walton Jr. there are plenty of teams that are built to make runs in this tournament. Having controlling point guard play can be the most crucial part to any tournament team which is made evident by the runs of Kemba Walker, Shabazz Napier, and Tyus Jones.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. “What about Yogi?”
Yogi Ferrell is arguably the best point guard in the country, but my concern is how much he has to focus on his match-up.
When you have a guy who plays 37 minutes a game and does relatively everything for his team, you don’t want him to have to worry about his matchup every time down the court. Consequently, I’m genuinely concerned with the difficulty of Indiana’s path to the Final Four.
With that said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if IU actually did make the Final Four.
The way Indiana has played all season creates a scenario where it’s more than feasible for IU to lose in the first round to Chattanooga or make the Final Four. When Indiana is rolling on all cylinders, it can beat anyone. When Indiana is missing shots and forgoing fundamentals, it can be humiliated.
#12 Chattanooga (29-5, 15-3)
With Indiana’s first matchup, there shouldn’t actually be too much fear of an upset. Indiana got lucky in only one respect on selection Sunday, and that was in the form of the worst 12 seed in the tournament. Arguably, Chattanooga could have easily been a 14 or 15 seed with their only “big wins” coming against Dayton and Georgia.
When looking at teams that can potentially pull off a big bracket busting upset, you want to find a team that can shoot the ball really well. Upsets come when good teams have just a bad shooting night and the underdog can shoot the lights out. No matter if Indiana struggles to shoot the ball in this match-up, Chattanooga just doesn’t have the scoring ability to compete.
There only real shooter to fear is Eric Robertson, because, well, shooting is all he does. He’s 40.4% from behind the arc and has 80 triples this season. Alongside him, Tre’ McLean can cause problems, but expect him to be shut down by OG Anunoby quite quickly.
#4 Kentucky
Arguably the toughest match-up in this entire region could come from Big Blue Nation in the second round. Seth Greenberg has already argued that an Indiana vs Kentucky match-up should be an Elite Eight or Final Four game and coaches such as Tom Izzo have already weighed in on Indiana’s unjustified seeding. Both Indiana and Kentucky shouldn’t even be in this situation, but since they are, let’s talk about it.
Indiana has arguably the best point guard in the country and he is also super short.
Kentucky has arguably the best point guard in the country and he is also super short.
That’s it.
Both of these teams are remarkably dynamic and can cause teams various problems, but eventually this game will just turn into a matchup between Yogi Ferrell and Tyler Ulis.
I’m fine with that.
Kentucky is very similar to IU in the fact that they can beat anyone at its best and lose to anyone at its worst. This game could truly come down to chance. Jamal Murray could have a game where he’s completely lights out from behind the arc or he could be a nervous freshman that goes 0 for 6. For Indiana, Troy Williams could totally be “BAD Troy” all game or he could be “GOOD Troy” all game.
No matter what, this game is must watch television (If it happens).
#9 Providence
Providence finds itself on this list solely because of Kris Dunn. Kris Dunn is the type of player that can single-handedly will his team to an upset against North Carolina. Although I do believe Providence has a chance against UNC, the matchup versus Indiana would be much more difficult.
Providence has seven players who average over 24 minutes per game and Indiana’s up tempo offense and ability to get to the free throw line can cause problems for Providence’s depth.
If Indiana restricts its turnovers against an aggressive Providence defense, there shouldn’t be too many issues. Especially since Providence only shoots 31.5% from three.
#1 North Carolina
Like I mentioned earlier, North Carolina would be an intersting match-up for IU if they come together in the Sweet Sixteen. North Carolina is a strong team, but really lack size in the post and lack three point shooting.
Against Indiana, North Carolina would sincerely look to pressure Thomas Bryant and try to get him in foul trouble. No one was better than the Tar Heels from 2-point range (52.3%) in ACC play, but no one was worse from beyond the arc (28.3%).
The thing that should scare fans of the Tar Heels are some of their bad losses. In games against Notre Dame and Texas, this team looked somewhat lost.
#6 Notre Dame
Notre Dame is another team in the East that is built around strong guard play. Demetrius Jackson (15.6 PPG) and Steve Vasturia (12.3 PPG) are crucial to this team’s success but their 172nd best defense in the country is a rather large concern.
Of course, it’s hard to forget the win IU picked up against the Notre Dame in the Crossroads Classic, as it truly turned the season around.
#11 Michigan
Kameron Chatman traveled.
#3 West Virginia
If Kentucky isn’t the toughest potential match-up for IU, then West Virginia is.
West Virginia will pressure you until you’re so uncomfortable that you reveal some of your deepest darkest secrets.
West Virginia will pressure you just as long as the grass is green.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that a turnover prone Indiana basketball team will not fare well against the full court press of West Virginia.
The only thing that West Virginia really struggles with is shooting the basketball. For Indiana to win, it might need Yogi to play 40 minutes, because no one else can really break the press like he can.
West Virginia’s big losses come from Kansas (2x), Oklahoma (2x), Texas (2x), and Virginia. This clearly exemplifies that it isn’t easy to beat WVU unless you’re elite.
#7 Wisconsin
The Badgers are a completely new team under first-year coach Greg Gard. They won 11 of their last 13 regular-season games, but did suffer a bad loss in the first-round of Big Ten tourney to Nebraska. Of course, they’re not the only ones to do that.
They’ve improved from beyond the arc and can force plenty of turnovers.
What holds Wisconsin back is its lack of rebounding (34.9 RPG) and its inability to find scoring outside of Nigel Hayes (16.3 PPG).
Based on Indiana’s two previous games against Wisconsin, another game would probably be a dog fight. It’s hard to say what would happen, but Thomas Bryant’s ability to impose himself on Ethan Happ could possibly make the difference.
#2 Xavier
Finally, there are Chris Mack’s Xavier Musketeers. Xavier is one of those programs that seems to find success every three or four years. It looks to develop strong all-around basketball players, and this year is no different.
This basketball team is incredibly deep and well rounded. They hit the glass hard, shoot well from the free throw line, and don’t just have one main scorer. It is important to note that Xavier’s leading scorer is Trevon Bluiett (15.2 PPG), so a big Xavier loss could lead to an absolutely amazing headline.
A game against Xavier wouldn’t present any specific major problems for IU. There would just be a lot of different things to worry about.
Overall, Indiana is faced with an incredibly hard draw, but they can genuinely beat any team in it. Indiana could also lose to any team in the East, so just be prepared for that when Indiana opens the tournament against Chattanooga on Thursday.