NCAA Tournament Bracket Talk

Hoosier State of Mind Managing Editor Brian Fox breaks down the entire bracket of the NCAA Tournament with the help of KJHK (Lawrence, Kansas) personality and broadcaster Mike Maicke.

Brian: Mike, thank you for joining me once again this year to break down the bracket. I know you have to be excited about your Jayhawks grabbing the No. 1 overall seed, not to mention how great Kansas has looked recently.

Mike: Of course! Love doing this, after all this is truly the most wonderful time of the year. Right you are about my Jayhawks as of late. After that shaky stretch in the middle of conference play Lawrence was clearly uneasy. But recently this team has looked as close to unstoppable as one can. I like KU to go deep this year because for the first time since Thomas Robinson, the team is more collegiately good than NBA good. The last two years Kansas has churned out lottery picks for the NBA but those lottery picks failed to even see the Sweet 16.

Brian: Before we get into discussing each region, I want to get your thoughts on how the selection committee fared. Who are the most notable omissions in your mind from the field of 68?

Mike: Well honestly I think the committee did a good job with getting the right 68 teams in. I have issues with the seeding of some of those teams, but in terms of omissions I think they nailed it. Monmouth didn’t deserve to be in, nor did St. Mary’s. The one team that may have a small legitimate gripe would be South Carolina in my opinion. There should never be an at-large bid coming from the MAAC, never.

Brian: I think this year we really got the answer to the eternal question of whether the committee prefers mediocre high-major schools or “good” mid-major schools. I think Valparaiso and San Diego State had legitimate gripes. Both teams challenged themselves out of conference, which the committee always says is important, and still won 25-26 games. At the very least send one of them to Dayton instead of Tulsa. Frank Haith should be banned from March. Not to mention Tulsa’s players were shocked that the team made the tournament at all.

Mike: I understand that point but winning 20+ games doesn’t carry the same weight that it did four or five years ago. All these teams play so many holiday tournaments now, etc. But you know me, I’m the ultimate mid-major grinch. Inevitably, a team like Syracuse is going to run into more consistent competition than a Valpo. Let’s remember, Valpo lost in the Semifinals of the Horizon League tournament, the semis! If you are a mid-major and you know that the committee members will typically not give you any latitude, take the decision out of their hands and win the conference tournament. Tulsa is very mind boggling, but like I said, I’m certainly not seeing any team that got “snubbed”. I mean how far can this NCAA Tournament affirmative action go? We can’t give mid-majors more of a break because they don’t play hard teams in conference, power 5 conference teams play harder competition and typically are more deserving than mid-majors. That’s just how it is.

Brian: True, but if I recall correctly, Valpo lost to a team that you have in your Sweet 16.

Mike: I’m all about chalk, and yeah Green Bay is an underrated squad, but they are better than Valpo. They showed that in the tournament and they took that title, Valpo didn’t give it away.

Brian: I think the bigger issue in all of this lies with the committee. Like John Calipari said yesterday, the points of emphasis from the committee are constantly changing, it’s a moving target. One year it’s road wins, then they say RPI (which is a joke) is important. Mid-majors are typically at a disadvantage for a lot of reasons, but there are a lot of schools, like Monmouth, who are crafting their schedules to check all the boxes that the committee is putting in front of them. I’m more upset that March Madness is missing out on Monmouth’s bench rather than its actual basketball team, but I can’t help but feel a little empathetic for some of these smaller schools that are doing everything the committee is asking and still getting shut out. But enough whining from me, let’s look at the South Region, where we both agree Kansas is the favorite.

South Region

Brian: Who do you see as the biggest threat to knock off the Jayhawks?

Mike: I think the team coming out of the South has to be the Jayhawks, they actually have a pretty good draw matchup-wise. Bill Self has one of the deepest teams he’s ever had which makes foul trouble less of an issue than in the past. The team is completely healthy and has two upperclassmen on the wing and an emerging Devonte’ Graham running the point, not to mention Perry Ellis on the block in his eighth year at KU. But the biggest threat I can see is Miami in the Elite 8. I’m big on the Davon Reed, Angel Rodriguez, and Sheldon McClellan trio. They are well coached and just play loose and unafraid. If they can rebound the ball they could have a chance to pull off the upset. But ultimately I think KU just has too many weapons to stop in this region.

Brian: I agree, I mentioned this to you the other day but I just find it remarkable that Kansas is so deep that Cheick Diallo, one of the top-10 recruits in the class of 2015, barely sees the court. I think the biggest threat to Kansas has to be Villanova. I know the Wildcats have made an annual tradition of getting upset on the first weekend, but with this draw that they have there’s no excuse to not make it to Louisville. Villanova has always had strong guard play, and that’s true again with the likes of Josh Hart, Ryan Arcidiacono, and freshman Jalen Brunson. But I think with Daniel Ochefu playing the way he has in the paint, this edition of the Wildcats is the best we’ve seen. Ultimately though, it’s moot because I don’t see anyone beating Kansas.

Mike: Villanova is very talented, also a great team to watch, the Big East seems to be getting better overall which is good to see. I agree with you about Brunson, could be the next Scottie Reynolds! I expect and am excited to see the potential Miami vs Nova game.

More from Indiana Basketball

Brian: Our mutual friend and fellow Hoosier State of Mind writer Ryan Bode will definitely appreciate the Scottie Reynolds shoutout.

Any upset specials for you in the South?

Mike: I’m like the boring ESPN analyst in that region, taking mostly chalk. I have The U beating Nova, Maryland beating Cal, and Temple beating Iowa but those are hardly courageous picks. It’s interesting because despite the extreme parity we’ve seen all year, I don’t see all that many upsets cooking in the big dance.

Brian: I’m certainly inclined to agree with you in the later rounds, as my bracket gets more “chalky” as the tournament goes on. But the South is one of two regions I really went out on a limb with the upsets. I have both No. 12 South Dakota State beating No. 5 Maryland and No. 13 Hawaii beating No. 4 Cal, with Hawaii advancing to the Sweet 16. SDSU likes to spread the floor and hits jump shots at an impressive clip, and I saw how much Maryland struggled with those types of teams in the Big Ten. Also, Hawaii is flat-out good. I’ve probably watched more of the Rainbow Warriors than most people, which isn’t so much of a brag as it is evidence that I need to get a life. Stefan Jankovic and Roderick Bobbitt are a great inside-out duo for a team that easily handled Northern Iowa and nearly beat Oklahoma. Hawaii is about as good a 13 seed as you’ll see.

Mike: Well the 12 vs 5 is certainly notorious for upsets. My Jackrabbit viewing was at an all time low and I only caught Hawaii in their conference tournament but I was very impressed with it. I was blown away with Jankovic’s play but I fear that if you contain him then the Rainbow Warriors could struggle. My primary upsets are out west this year and even then it’s nothing TOO serious.

But in the end I have KU over Miami in the Elite 8. I will refuse to let myself get burned by Nova for the seventh straight year.

Brian: This is the last year I’m willing to let myself get burned by Nova, we’ll see. Who are your under-the-radar players to watch in this region?

Mike: Overall I totally love your Jankovic pick. I’ll definitely be expecting him to explode against Cal, but I’m going to go a bit off the rails and say Rodney Purvis on UConn. The transfer guard from NC State seems to be a bit more comfortable under Kevin Ollie. His stats don’t jump off the page at 12.5 points per game but just using the eye test, the dude can ball. He’s an athletic defender and at 6’4″ he can cause some matchup issues on the wing.

Brian: I like Purvis, I think UConn as a whole could be a sneaky-tough second-round game for Kansas. Everyone is going to be talking about George Marshall from South Dakota State, the transfer guard from Wisconsin. But there might not be a more efficient scorer in the country than his teammate, Mike Daum. Daum is averaging 15.2 points in just 20 minutes per game, with absurd 56/45/82 shooting splits. He’s yet another weapon that Maryland has to deal with. I also like Josh Scott, double-double machine for Colorado, but the rest of his team doesn’t give him much help.

Mike: Great point on Scott, terrific player but unfortunately for Buff nation he can’t do it alone. Scott vs Daniel Hamilton in the paint will be a heavy weight battle.

West Region

Brian: As we move now to our next region, the West, I have a sneaking suspicion that you’re picking another Big 12 team to advance to the Final Four.

Mike: I do, I have Oklahoma but man, you can flip a coin between it and Oregon. Very similar teams that can score. OU maybe relies on the jump shot a bit more but that would be a fun, fast-paced game. Ultimately I went with OU because I think Buddy Hield is the best player in the country. If Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins can help him out on the wing and Khadeem Lattin can control the glass then I like Boomer to advance to the Final Four. It’s a tough region though, very difficult to pick.

Brian: There are few things related to college basketball I love more than watch Hield shoot (or Denzel Valentine pass, for that matter), but I have Oregon over Oklahoma in the Elite 8. I guess so far I’m showing a lot of love to teams out west (not as much as the committee, Oregon State as a seven seed is an absolute joke, but still). The Ducks have so many long, interchangeable pieces on that front line. Chris Boucher was a fantastic one-year rental, and freshman guard Tyler Dorsey (who has international experience playing for Greece) has been very impressive. And most importantly, Dwayne Benjamin is a Snoop Dogg doppelganger. In all seriousness though, love the Ducks.

Mike: I watch the Pac-12 mainly to hear Bill Walton. I absolutely love Snoop Dogg Benjamin! He was dropping buckets like they were hot in the conference tournament (not actually, except against Arizona, but I just needed to get that in there) I like your Oregon pick though, and I like the Sooners. Truly could go either way.

Brian: Bill Walton is a verbal acid trip.

Mike: Brace for impact, Green Bay will make the Sweet 16 this year!

You know how so many people love A&M, yet those people that love them probably can’t even name a player on the team. Speaking of love, Carrington Love is one of the most fun guards to watch in the NCAA. He’s absolutely fearless and his demeanor seems to trickle down to the rest of his team. When Valpo pushed the game to OT, Love wasn’t fazed and completely took over, willing his team to the victory. The high-low action between Love and Jordan Fouse is absolutely deadly. Take note America! GB is going to the Sweet 16.

Brian: Of course Green Bay finally makes the tournament AFTER Keifer Sykes graduates. But since you mentioned A&M, I want to mention that I thought ESPN was misspelling Danuel House’s first name for years until I finally figured it out.

Mike: Not once have I typed that dude’s name correctly on the first try.

Brian: Thank you, I feel much better about myself now. The only upsets I have in this region are VCU over Oregon State (which I don’t consider an upset), and Northern Iowa over Texas, which is an interesting matchup between two teams that beat UNC during nonconference play. Could Wes Washpun be the next UNI March hero? I say yes.

Mike: Welp…thank you for saying March hero and not the F word (Farokhmanesh).

Brian: I really wanted to troll you but I held off.

Mike: Texas is mind boggling though, despite the talented (or maybe more so just athletic) front court, I still believe that as Isaiah Taylor goes, the Horns go. And I don’t think Taylor is or has been 100 percent healthy all year.

Brian: I agree, Shaka Smart teams have always been led by strong guards, which makes it all the more impressive that he’s had so much immediate success with so many frontcourt rotation players.

Mike: Classic committee move putting in the potential VCU vs Texas matchup, too.

Brian: Yes, just like Wichita State/Kansas last year and IU/UK this year, but we’ll get into that more in a moment. I think there are a number of interesting players in the Saint Joe’s/Cincinnati first round matchup. The Isaiah Miles/DeAndre Bembry frontcourt combines to average just under 36 points and 16 rebounds per game for the Hawks. And Troy Caupain is a stud for Cincy, absolutely took over that marathon game against UConn.

Mike: I’m really excited to see that game because I totally agree. I think those seeds are perfect for those teams and Troy Caupain is one of the best names in college basketball that people haven’t heard of.

I touched on my guys to watch already but I truly think Love and Fouse will have a Malcolm Armstead and Cleanthony Early style break out tournament.

Brian: I forgot about your love for Wichita State, but I will say I wouldn’t mind seeing Green Bay as a 14 seed make a bit of a run.

East Region

Brian: As we move to the East Region, since this is an Indiana site I have to ask you: what is your overall perception of this IU team and just how far do you think the Hoosiers can go?

Mike: I should preface this by saying that I think IU is grossly under seeded in this tournament. I think you made a good point yesterday where you said that Wisconsin wasn’t penalized for its loss to Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament but it appears that IU was penalized for its loss to Michigan. Going into Selection Sunday I thought IU could make a run to the Elite 8 and potentially even the Final Four. But now I’m really not sure. Chattanooga is actually a pretty tough team, definitely not a pushover but I think IU gets by them. But now how on Earth do you set IU up to play UK in the second round?! That’s completely absurd. I have the Hoosiers falling to the Wildcats in a close game there. UK is just rolling right now (especially Jamal Murray). I like Isaiah Briscoe’s defense on the wing and Tyler Ulis is one of the few point guards in the country that can contain Yogi Ferrell.

I actually took Kentucky to get to the Final Four, and no I do not feel good about that morally.

Brian: I think that entire sub-regional got screwed matchup-wise. Chattanooga and Stony Brook are two of the teams that people were circling as potential Cinderellas, then the brackets came out and they’re stuck playing Indiana and Kentucky, respectively. I hate that I’m quoting Calipari twice in one day, but he hit the nail on the head yesterday. When a team is grossly under-seeded, as IU and Kentucky are, that’s not the team that suffers. It’s the teams that have to play them that suffer. So really, I can understand all four of those coaches being a little frustrated. Obviously I have Indiana as the team making it to the Sweet 16.

You said UK is your Final Four pick. Who in your mind is its biggest challenger?

Mike: Indiana will be a very difficult game, as I mentioned before I love Yogi Ferrell and of course you gotta love the new Jordan Hulls, Nick Zeisloft! North Carolina will be tough to get by as well because when the Heels all play to their full potential they are perhaps the best team in the country.

But man, this bracket will be riddled with frustration for me.

Brian: Zeisloft gave probably the best senior speech I heard in my four years at Indiana, and I would hate to see his career end without IU getting out of the first weekend. And I’m right there with you on UNC. I picked the Tar Heels to advance because they are ridiculous on the interior. Brice Johnson is a monster, and their defense over the latter part of this season has helped to offset their terrible outside shooting. I think UNC’s biggest challenge will end up being West Virginia. The Mountaineer’s guard play is solid as always, and there aren’t many big men in the country playing better than Devin Williams right now.

Mike: Love Devin Williams, very efficient big man that can space the floor with mid-range jumpers and can actually hit free throws. I have West Virginia in my Elite 8 but people really need to be careful with the Mountaineers. The game slows down in the tournament and WVU cannot play in a half court set. Also the Mountaineers have horrendous outside shooting, and when the game is called tighter–which it always is in March–they can have some real problems. I had close to a front row seat for all their games in Kansas City and man, they hand check every possession.

Brian: Completely agree, that’s why I think WVU will struggle against UNC’s half court defense. Also, I’m just realizing this now but I really have no upsets in the East. The only upsets by seed I have are Providence over USC and WVU over Xavier, but I’m not lame enough to call a nine over eight seed an “upset”.

Mike: The only potential real upset would maybe be the Mocs, but that’s a bit of a stretch. Wish they weren’t pitted against IU because I don’t love their matchup there.

Brian: So what you’re saying is that IU will win, I like that.

Mike: The Hoosiers will in a very, very close game.

Brian: I can live with that. In terms of under-the-radar players, I like Ethan Happ of Wisconsin, though he is extremely frustrating to play against. He’s the prototypical Badger who doesn’t make it look pretty but he simply scores. Also Zach Auguste of Notre Dame is the best big man who no one’s talking about. He absolutely dominated Duke in the ACC tournament and will be crucial to a potential ND tourney run.

Mike: Zach Auguste definitely deserves more props for what he does. Always shows up for the big games and I love the intangibles and attitude that he plays with. Watch for Jaysean Paige on West Virginia, he’s the only one that you cannot consistently leave open on the perimeter. He has great athleticism and court vision.

Brian: Overall the East is just a loaded region, I could see so many scenarios playing out.

Mike: It’s undisputedly the hardest region the tournament.

Midwest Region

Brian: Which brings us to our final region, the Midwest. Who ya got?

Mike: Sparty on Garth! But honestly Michigan State was given yet ANOTHER gift from the committee. Without a doubt it’s the easiest road in all the land and of course the Spartans are pitted against Virginia again, too. I think with Valentine at the helm and Forbes on the wing they are awfully difficult to stop.

Brian: At this point you have to think the committee is playing a sick, twisted joke on Virginia, right?

Mike: Absolutely, and yet again I have Virginia falling to MSU in the Elite 8. I mean the calendar essentially goes January, February, Izzo. So it’s difficult to go against the Spartans.

Brian: I have the same Elite 8 matchup with MSU advancing. Valentine does so many things well, but his court vision I think really sets him apart. I’ve also warmed up to Matt Costello, the guy dominated Big Ten play.

This is the region I went crazy with the upsets.

I have Gonzaga in the Sweet 16, I know the Zags don’t have the strong guards they usually do, but the interior duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis will help Gonzaga knock off Seton Hall and Utah. I also like AJ English and Iona to catch fire and knock off inconsistent, over-seeded Iowa State. Finally, I like four-loss Arkansas-Little Rock to upset Purdue and then take down Iona.

Mike: This is the year I finally followed suit with you there! Zags in the Sweet 16! I love Sabonis, and Wiltjer is on a mission.

Brian: No one else understands how big a moment this is.

Mike: I know man it’s been like the Hundred Years’ War between us with the Zags. I’m with you on the AJ English love, talk about a fearless player who will let it fly from anywhere, but I think ISU gets through then falls to Purdue only because of the size Purdue has.

Brian: I went against God and country and picked Purdue to beat Cincinnati last year, only to have the Boilermakers choke it away. I think that was a sign that I’m never supposed to do that again. Plus I love watching Little Rock play, it’s exactly the type of team that can make a run in March. The Trojans don’t have any huge scorers but Josh Hagins can really stuff a stat sheet.

Mike: I wouldn’t expect you or ever ask you to take Purdue, that’s just wrong. And hey, it is that notorious 12/5, got to expect one upset to happen.

Brian: I feel like Butler is a team chock-full of overlooked players. Kellen Dunham is a great shooter who can do so much more, and Roosevelt Jones has the ugliest game ever but always seems to find ways to score. I also like Dyshawn Pierre of Dayton, probably one of the best rebounders in the country for his size.

Mike: I took Texas Tech but I’m not running to Vegas on that pick, and let’s be real the winner gets the right to get shellacked by Virginia. It’s pretty chalk heavy for me minus the Zags in the Sweet 16 in this region though.

Brian: I always expect you to be partial to Big 12 teams anyway.

Mike: That’s another coin flip one though, so when it’s up to that I just go with who played in the better conference. I think it’d be hard to argue that top to bottom there is a better conference than the Big 12 when you have seven teams making the tournament from a ten team league. However, last year the conference did not have the best showing in March.

Brian: I think with the way seedings and matchups played out though, the Big 12 shouldn’t have to worry about a poor showing. So my Final Four is Kansas, Oregon, North Carolina, and Michigan State. You’ve got Kansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Michigan State. Who are your finalists and champion?

Mike: It’s the first year I don’t have my “out there” pick for a Final Four in awhile but actually I’m going to go with the two teams that finished the year ranked one and two. I have KU beating Michigan State in a Champions Classic rematch. I love KU’s depth and Izzo and Valentine have me sold.

Brian: For once, I completely agree with you on that. Thanks once again for joining me to break down the bracket, and I can’t wait to see how this tournament plays out.

Mike: Wow a lot of firsts here! Of course, always a pleasure, I’ll see you next year.

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