Indiana 85, OSU 60: Is Indiana Better Without James Blackmon Jr?

Indiana (14-3, 4-0) dominated Ohio State (11-6, 3-1) on Sunday from start to finish, beating the Buckeyes 85-60 to win its fourth straight game without James Blackmon Jr, and ninth straight overall.

Indiana played well by just about every statistical measure (I’m choosing to ignore Nick Zeisloft’s 0-8 shooting night, including 0-7 on threes. Woof.). Troy Williams broke out of his funk with 23 points and six rebounds, Thomas Bryant recorded his first double-double with 18 points and 12 rebounds, and the Hoosiers were +19 on the boards. Indiana’s defense turned in another stellar performance, holding Ohio State to 18 first half points and 39 percent shooting for the game.

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The way the Hoosiers dominated on both sides of the ball, especially defensively, got me thinking: is IU a better team without Blackmon? No disrespect to Blackmon, as the Hoosiers surely miss the 15.8 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, as well as his 46 percent three point shooting.

But Indiana is playing fantastic basketball without him, and all the pieces are in place for the Ewing Theory. For the unaware, the Ewing Theory was created by Dave Cirilli and made famous by Bill Simmons. It is so named because Cirilli was convinced that Ewing’s teams somehow played better when Ewing was injured or out with foul trouble. Let’s see how Blackmon’s situation qualifies, using the two elements of the theory:

1. A star athlete receives an inordinate amount of media attention and fan interest, and yet his teams never win anything substantial with him.

Blackmon was the most hyped in-state recruit that IU has signed since Cody Zeller, thanks in part to his 33 points per game at Marion. He has impressed from the start in Bloomington, and was named a finalist for both the Wayman Tisdale (best freshman in the country) and Jerry West (best shooting guard in the country) Awards last season. Even so, the Hoosiers struggled just to make the NCAA tournament last season, and Indiana has a record of just 30-17 in games that Blackmon has played. Check.

2. That same athlete leaves his team (either by injury, trade, graduation, free agency or retirement) — and both the media and fans immediately write off the team.

I will concede that this is a bit more of a stretch. No one necessarily acted like the sky was falling when Blackmon’s injury and severity was announced, but it’s also not like anyone reacted positively. The statistical impact that Blackmon brought to the table was huge, and many thought that IU’s bench would not be able to make up for that missing production.  Indiana’s offense was expected to struggle, the Hoosiers’ defense would continue to be a liability, and Indiana wouldn’t make much noise in the Big Ten. With that in mind, Blackmon’s situation qualifies here. Check.

When these two elements are met and the team plays even better without the aforementioned star player, the Ewing Theory is more or less proved. It’s a small sample size, but Indiana definitely has played like a better team without Blackmon. His absence has opened the door for more minutes for OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan, and Collin Hartman, and all three of those players have greatly helped to improve the Hoosier defense. As of this writing KenPom has Indiana ranked 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency, which is leaps and bounds ahead of where Indiana was last season and earlier this season. As the cliché goes, defense leads to offense, and the Hoosiers showed against Ohio State that they could still put up points in bunches. The ball movement has been beautiful as of late, working the ball inside to Bryant with more and more regularity, and Indiana assisted on nine of its first ten field goals. Anunoby’s emergence has helped the Hoosier offense immensely, both due to his energy on the glass and his impressive outside shot.

Losing James Blackmon Jr seemed like a huge loss at the time, but might not be as significant as it appeared. Indiana is playing well without him, and the Hoosiers are establishing themselves as a contender in the Big Ten. The Ewing Theory appears to be striking again.