What are we going to make of this year's team? The Indiana Hoosiers have had their moments under Darian DeVries this season. However, their brutally bad record of 3-11 in Quad 1 games is why Indiana could be on the outside looking in at making this year's NCAA Tournament... After losing 91-78 to another bubble team in the Ohio State Buckeyes over the weekend, Indiana is really playing with fire.
While that should have been a death blow to this frustrating IU team's chances of making the field of 68, they are still somehow alive to be part of March Madness. After Sunday evening's Bracketology update, Joe Lunardi has Indiana as the first team out heading into the conference tournaments portion of the season. Indiana is 18-13 overall and 9-11 vs. Big Ten teams. Could they still make it in?
Indiana earned the No. 10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers will face the winner of No. 15 Northwestern vs. No. 18 Penn State in their second round game. Whoever wins that will play No. 7 Purdue in the third round. With Indiana needing to win five games to win the Big Ten Tournament, that may not be in the cards for them. They do need a win or two in the tournament to make the field of 68.
Truth be told, the Hoosiers also need to root against these three other bubble teams moving forward.
3. Virginia Tech Hokies
There are a handful of teams in the ACC that Indiana should worry about. One of them has to be the Virginia Tech Hokies. They are 19-12 on the year and 8-10 in ACC play. While their NET rating of 53 is a tinge problematic, Lunardi does have the Hokies as the second team out behind Indiana. They edge out the likes other ACC bubble teams such as Stanford and Cal for Indiana's third biggest threat here.
Because they are ahead of Stanford and Cal in the latest Bracketology update, that might matter in the end. Virginia Tech is the No. 12 seed in the ACC Tournament. If the Hokies can beat No. 13 Wake Forest and No. 5 Clemson in succession, all before giving No. 4 North Carolina a scare in the ACC quarterfinals, that might be compelling enough for VT to overtake IU for maybe the last spot in this.
While Indiana has played a harder schedule, Virginia Tech has not been as much of a disappointment.
2. SMU Mustangs
With it being a historically bad weekend for teams on the bubble, outside of Ohio State of course, the SMU Mustangs have still been able to hold on for dear life in regards to the March Madness bubble. The Ponies have the exact same record as Virginia Tech overall and in conference play at 19-12 (8-10). The only difference is SMU's NET rating of 39 is much closer to Indiana's 37 than VT's lowly 53...
Thus, SMU has a slightly better seed than Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs will start from the No. 11 position in its league tournament. If it beats No. 14 Syracuse and upsets No. 6 Louisville, it could secure its spot into the field of 68 with a quality showing vs. No. 3 Miami. SMU is currently projected to make the tournament as the second of the last four teams in after Sunday...
As long as SMU does not get blown out by Lousville in its second game, it should make the tourney.
1. Auburn Tigers
Of course, it is Auburn. Could it have been anybody else? For as frustratingly disappointing as this season has been for Indiana, Auburn has been the SEC equivalent of that under Steven Pearl. Lunardi, somehow, someway, has a 16-15 Auburn team that went 7-11 in SEC play as the last team into the field of 68 over Indiana. Maybe they played a harder schedule, but Auburn is 4-12 in Quad 1 games...
Their comparative NET ratings are inconsequential at this point, as Auburn comes in right on Indiana's tail at 38. As the No. 12 seed in the SEC Tournament, Auburn could stay ahead of Indiana with regards to the March Madness bubble by beating No. 13 Mississippi State. If it has a good showing vs. No. 5 Tennessee in the second round, it will help them. If it faces No. 4 Vanderbilt next, they are getting in...
The best thing that can happen for Indiana on the bubble is for Auburn to fall vs. Mississippi State.