Indiana Football: Staff Predictions – Indiana vs. Bowling Green

In the lead up to Indiana vs. Bowling Green, the Hoosier State of Mind staff answered some questions about the game and offered their predictions.

Question: The most important Hoosier tomorrow is…

Kyle Grand: Bobby Richardson. He was an absolute menace against Indiana State, racking up three sacks. Bowling Green loves to air it out, so Richardson needs to have a similar performance. There’s no better way to shake the confidence of a young QB like BGSU’s James Knapke than by making him uncomfortable in the pocket. It’s on Richardson to make Knapke feel his presence all afternoon long.

Will Logan: Nate Sudfeld without a question. By now we all now the story line: Sudfeld was off in game one and has been gun shy away from Memorial Stadium in the past. Well, here’s the perfect chance for Suddy to get his road wings wet against the second worst pass defense in the country. Time to nut up or…well actually, we don’t have a back up… so he better just show up.

Q: The most important Falcon is…

Grand: Running back Travis Greene. With a QB lacking in experience, the Falcons will lean on their stud running back to carry them. Expect Greene to get the ball early and often. If he can break off some big runs, Bowling Green will be able to use play-action.

Logan: James Knapke. I hate to pick each team’s QB as their MIP, but I think it’s true. Bowling Green fans and media seem to be optimistic after his first start last week against FCS opponent Virginia Military Institute, but his QB Rating was just in the 70’s and his interception total matched the number of TD’s he threw. He has never had a an FBS defense pressuring him, let alone a B1G defense currently ranked in the top ten nationally in sacks per game (thanks again to ISU and a bye-week for giving us these great stats). Bottom line, if the Hoosiers pressure him early (as we expect they will), how he handles that pressure will determine the Falcon’s offensive fate.

Q: One thing you’re looking for the Hoosiers to improve on is…

Grand: Special teams. The play of Nate Sudfeld is the obvious choice for this category, but I believe the passing game will return to its usual effectiveness. The special teams, however, needs some work. Against Indiana State, the Hoosiers muffed a punt, missed a field goal and didn’t punt the ball well. Going forward, the Hoosiers need to be excellent in this aspect if they want to make a bowl game.

Logan: Obviously, the biggest thing is the passing game, but I’m also looking for the defense to shore up some communication issues. We hear it all the time, “you can’t play fast if you’re thinking.” Understandably, the Hoosiers seemed to be “thinking” too much in their first game running Brian Knorr’s new defensive scheme. Hopefully on Saturday we won’t see players looking over to the sideline and shouting frantically at each other as plays begin as we have in the past.

Q: How big is this game for the Hoosiers?

Grand: Pretty big. The Hoosiers need five more wins to make a bowl and Bowling Green is definitely one of the easier opponents on the schedule. A loss here means that IU needs to pick up a win elsewhere (Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State). Obviously not an easy task for Indiana.

Logan: It can’t be understated. Indiana needs at least five more wins to make a bowl, and including Bowling Green, they have exactly five remaining games against teams ranked outside the top 50 in the country (Purdue, Rutgers, North Texas, Maryland). There are other potential upsets on the schedule, but for this season to be a success, Indiana needs to win the games they are supposed to, including this Saturday’s match up.

Prediction

Grand: Indiana 34, Bowling Green 31 – If this game was in Bloomington again, I think the Hoosiers would run away from the Falcons. But, I think in front of its home crowd, Bowling Green will be pumped up and give Indiana all it can handle. Look for this game to be close in the fourth quarter with the Hoosiers making a play late to capture the victory.

Logan: Indiana 42, Bowling Green 17 – Passing guru Kevin Wilson will not take outsiders questioning his team’s aerial attack lightly, and the Hoosiers will respond accordingly, showing Western Kentucky hanging 59 on the Falcons was no fluke. The Falcons will keep the game close for a while however with a rowdy home crowd in attendance.