Shall We Dance? Indiana’s Remaining Schedule

Since the Ohio State win, Hoosier fans have been treated to a few uninspiring wins, along with a string of depressing losses from the boys in candy stripes. A step back, however, reveals a rather bright picture for Indiana’s tournament chances.

Now I’ll be the first to admit I hate Notre Dame, but thanks to the recent success of the Fighting Irish, Indiana has a crucial, neutral-site win to hang their hat on come March (Shhh..let’s not tell the NCAA seeding committee that Conseco Fieldhouse was painted red that afternoon). Kentucky, Ohio State, and Michigan have also remained strong, further solidifying the Hoosiers’ tournament resume, giving them 4 quality wins to point to. These victories, combined with the undisputed strength of the Big 10 in the national scene, gives the Hoosiers some wiggle room for the rest of the year.

In fact, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say that Indiana would make the tournament if they finish 8-10 in the Big 10, given that they don’t completely no-show for the conference tournament. (No joke: the ACC and Pac 12 may get a historically low number of bids this year).

Let’s say instead, for the sake of our collective blood pressure, that 9-9 is the conference record needed to feel good about an NCAA tournament bid. Sitting at 5-5, this obviously means they need to pick off 4 more Big 10 opponents. A look at the remaining schedule examines the possibilities:

The Must-Wins- Absolutely can’t drop these

vs. Northwestern (Feb. 15) – The Wildcats are currently the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. They have won ONE basketball game on the road this entire year (none in-conference), the lone triumph coming against a weak Georgia Tech team early in the season. While NU generally competes with teams at home (Carmody’s crew, of course, managed to catch MSU off guard in Evanston) this team only kept one road game close all year, while all the rest were 20+ point blowouts. There is no excuse to lose this game.

vs. Purdue (Mar. 4) – Assembly Hall will be rocking for this one. The season finale for Indiana comes against in-state rival Purdue, so the fans, coaches, and players alike will know the implications of this one. Beyond just the rivalry, Purdue is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. Their deceiving conference record (5-4) includes wins against Northwestern, Iowa twice, Illinois and Minnesota. While the Boilermakers should be commended for taking care of business against teams they should beat, Purdue is the only team in the Big10 to not have beaten a ranked opponent this year. While a lot can happen before March 4th, here’s what isn’t disposed to change until then: Indiana will be ready for this game.

Two Of These, Please– Indiana needs to win 2 of the following 4 games:

@ Purdue (Feb. 4) – Conversely, West Lafayette always is a tough place to play for Indiana. This one could go down to the wire, and we may have a great opportunity to see how much this team learned from the loss @Nebraska. That being said, Purdue has no answer for Cody Zeller, who hopefully will carry Indiana to a long-awaited win over “that other team from Indiana”.

Vs. Illinois (Feb. 9) – Illinois is one of the most inconsistent teams this year, losing to teams like Penn State and Minnesota, while knocking off Ohio State and almost beating title-contender Missouri at a neutral site earlier in the year. They have the potential to beat anyone and lose to anyone simultaneously, thanks to the sporadic scoring of Brandon Paul and lapses in focus of the NBA-bound Meyers Leonard. Fortunately, Indiana matches up well with the Illini. Cody Zeller can neutralize Leonard if he plays smart, and Oladipo should be able to get in the head of Paul, a mentally fragile talent. This would be a nice repeat of last year’s upset, let’s just hope Gus Johnson is in town to call this one.

@ Iowa (Feb. 19) – Clearly, Iowa has figured out that making the game a track meet is not the way to beat Indiana. Look for Fran McCaffrey to slow this one down and pound it into Melsam Basabe to get Cody Zeller in foul trouble. One might be thinking that this game should be in the “Must Win” category, as Iowa has lost 5 of their last 6 games. A few factors bumped this one up. First off, Iowa has Penn State twice and Northwestern right before the Indiana game, and may well have a 3 game win streak going when the two teams face off in Iowa City. Secondly, Iowa has had Indiana’s number the last few years to the extent that one home win against the Hawkeyes won’t absolve the letdowns of the last few years . We can’t forget that Tom Crean still has not beat a team on the road in his IU tenure sans Penn State.

@Minnesota (Feb. 25) – The Gophers are red hot right now. Their sole loss in their last 5 games came at Michigan State, and made Indiana look like the old 2009 Hoosier team in Assembly Hall only two weeks ago. As mentioned above, no road match-up can be taken lightly at this point, especially a well-coached team like Minnesota. That being said, Tubby Smith’s squad has looked vulnerable at home in stretches, losing to Purdue and Iowa in “The Barn” earlier in the year. This is a golden opportunity for a solid road win to put on the tournament resume.

Expect The Worst, Hope For The Best

@ Michigan (Feb. 1) – A win in Ann Arbor would nearly augment Indiana’s tournament chances to the size of Tim Hardaway Jr.’s ego. It won’t be easy, though. Michigan has not lost at home this year, and that includes wins against underrated Iowa State, as well as Michigan State and Wisconsin. Their 3-point shooters have a tendency to score in bunches at home, so Crean will have to use his timeouts wisely to prevent big runs. Additionally, Trey Burke has improved significantly since the last time these two teams met, making the Wolverines even more dangerous offensively.

vs. Michigan State (Feb. 28) – Not much to be said here. Michigan State has a trio of big men that can grind Zeller and Watford to a pulp, and the Spartans will most likely be playing for a share of the Big 10 Championship at this point in the schedule. Izzo & Co. are bona fide Final 4 contenders, but then again so were Kentucky and Ohio State, right?