Is IU going dancing? And can we beat Kentucky?

First off, sorry for my hibernation…I-Core finals and case study have dominated my life for the past month or so.

In my free time, I have been thrilled with our wins over Evansville, Butler, and NC State (although the Evansville & Butler wins won’t do much for our RPI if both teams keep losing). As has been written on several message boards, blogs, newspapers and websites…this is a different IU team, as shown by the gutsy performance in Raleigh, NC last week. Such excitement is a fantastic excuse for over-zealous fans like me to start talking about Indiana’s tournament chances, even in December.

A good starting point is to look at the Big Ten’s track record when it comes to the selection committee. Historically, the conference gets 6 or 7 tournament bids. So far this year, the Big Ten has looked strong…so we could be looking at 7, although there is a lot of basketball still to be played. Regardless, after the Trevor Mbakwe injury killed Minnesota’s chances, we have seen a big chasm grow in the conference between the contenders and non-factors.

The top 7 teams in no order have been established as: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. At the very least, IU should finish ahead of Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State.

I guess the real question to be asked is will a .500 record in Big Ten play make the tournament, combined with an 11-1 non-conference record (assuming we beat a banged-up Notre Dame and lose to Kentucky). Traditionally, it has…but I’d say the magic number of Big 10 wins to feel safe on Selection Sunday is 10. With two games against Penn State, Minnesota & Iowa, one at Nebraska, and one vs. Northwestern…we play the bottom 5 teams in the conference 8 times. If we can go 7-1 in these 8 games, we can surely find 3 other conference wins against the higher quality competition.

Plus Jay Bilas even said…okay, okay…I’ll take off my binoculars and start looking at the more concrete picture of the next few weeks. Fortunately, this is just as much fun, due to the most exciting matchup of the year coming up this Saturday.

Really though, can we beat the Kentucky

Clippers Bobcats Wizards

Wildcats? Yes. Are our chances good? No.

The two keys Saturday will be 1) rebounding and 2) getting them in foul trouble

Last week, a big deal was made of keeping Barrow and Leslie, the two NC St. big men, off the glass. Well, we’re looking at a team of C.J. Leslies…or maybe more accurately, a team of freakishly athletic Hanner Perea’s. Only if Hanner Perea had Cody Zeller’s post moves and Victor Oladipo’s cat-like quickness.

Truthfully, I don’t know how we’re going to keep them off the glass. It’s not as easy as Tom Crean yelling “BOX THE F*$& OUT” in practice, or Christian Watford deciding he’s going to work harder in the paint. One thing that will help, however, is our guards crashing the boards to help out Zeller, Watford, Elston, Sheehey, and Pritchard in their individual assignments. Generally, Crean likes our 2 and 3 guards to get out on the break and look for a quick outlet pass so we can run the opponent up and down the floor. Saturday, I hope Crean has our guards crash the boards to try to slow down, or at least agitate Kentucky’s bigs operating under the basket. After all, I don’t think getting out on the break every time is such a fantastic idea against the likes of 5

kids

grown men who could play in the NBA tomorrow.

Secondly, comes foul trouble…and for once I’m not talking about us. While keeping Zeller, Hulls, Oladipo and Sheehey on the court as much as possible will help, our big chance at winning this game is getting UK in foul trouble. If you look at Calipari’s PT distribution, he only plays 6 guys.

Once you get past (hold your breath) Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb, Anthony Davis, Mike Gilchrist, Marquise Teague, and Darius Miller (ooooppphhhh) Kentucky is really really thin.
So, I think if we can get 2, or maybe even 3 of their “big 6” to sit down with foul trouble for a significant period of time (especially in the 2nd half), and gang-rebound the ball on the defensive end…we CAN indeed beat Kentucky. Just don’t bet the house on it.