Indiana Basketball: Season Predictions

In the lead up to Indiana’s basketball season, the Hoosier State of Mind staff answered questions and offered their predictions on the upcoming season.

Q: This has been a tumultuous offseason. How will it affect the Hoosiers?

Kyle Grand: In my mind, there are only two ways this can go. The problems of the offseason hang over the Hoosiers all season like a dark cloud or they cause the team to rally together with an “us against the world” mentality. I’m going with the latter.

If I was a player, all of the questioning of commitment, leadership and ability from the outside world would drive me nuts. I would take it upon myself to prove everyone wrong and show that the sky’s the limit for this team. I think this will be the mindset of the Hoosiers from tipoff of the first game. After a terrible season and even worse offseason, the players have no choice but to band together and right the ship.

Will Logan: Hopefully it’ll be something the young team can rally around. They seemed to lack any type of purpose or direction last year. They’ve got plenty of bullets and board material now.

Jessica Hunt: The offseason events suggest a lack of leadership inside the locker room. There does not appear to be any sort of culture of accountability either. A lack of leadership will absolutely translate onto the court and may manifest itself through a variety of ways, be it undisciplined play and laziness, selfishness with the ball or even confusion in setting up plays. There is also the sense players may be distracted by the offseason noise and are not giving the team their undivided attention. It also sheds light on the suspicion the lure of social benefits found at a large school like Indiana took priority for some of the players and thus, IU has signed the ‘wrong’ types of individuals to represent the team and the university, ones that will never truly buy into the program the way they should to be successful as a unit.

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Q: How hot is Tom Crean’s seat?

Grand: Pretty toasty. If the Hoosiers don’t make the Big Dance, consider him gone. Hoosier nation will not put up with another subpar season.

Logan: It’ll depend on how the team plays more so than their wins and losses. If fans see a group of young players, playing hard and improving week to week, Crean will be given more time to right the ship. If fans see another group of underachieving players and more questionable end game coaching, Crean will be toast.

Hunt: A 17-15 record for a program that is starved for success is one thing. A 17-15 record in conjunction with a program that has apparently been synonymous with a lack of discipline is another. The Hoosier faithful are willing to forgive when you are winning, but ultimately the basketball program was built on a foundation of winning and doing it the right way. As of now, the Hoosiers are neither winning nor conducting themselves with respect. On a scale of Anchorage to Phoenix, I’d say Crean is somewhere in the neighborhood of San Antonio. At the very least Tom needs to make the Big Dance to keep his job.

Q: What’s your biggest concern with this year’s team?

Grand: Post play. Hanner Mosquera-Perea is looking better, but the Hoosiers are pretty thin after him. Devin Davis was poised for a big season, but who knows if he will even be able to step on the court this year. So, the onus falls to freshmen Emmitt Holt and Tim Priller to pick up the slack. Scary, I know.

Logan: Players staying committed. Other than all of the obvious off the court issues, a very real concern is the outsides negative opinion of Tom creans actual coaching ability beginning to creep into the players minds. If the team loses their faith in their coach, it’s all over.

Hunt: My biggest concern was going to be the defensive liability the Hoosiers may pose in going to a small, guard-heavy lineup. Now, see my responses to the previous two questions.

Q: What are you most looking forward to?

Grand: James Blackmon Jr. The kid can flat out score. I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads the conference in scoring. Yes, he’s that good. The combination of him and Yogi Ferrell will be an exciting one to watch every game.

Logan: Seeing how much Troy Williams has developed over the offseason. He constantly gets Oladipo comparisons as a player with extreme raw athletic ability and solid work ethic. Will he be able to live up to the lofty comparison?

Hunt: I am excited to watch this offense, which features many players capable of shooting the ball. This will be a stark change from last year’s squad that struggled to find scoring. The guard play of Ferrell, Johnson, Blackmon Jr., Zeisloft and Robinson will provide a merry-go-round of drives to the basket and long-range shooting.

Q: Leading scorer?

Grand: JBJ. Not a doubt in my mind.

Logan: Yogi Ferrell. Of course, he has more weapons to distribute the ball to this year, but James Blackmon Jr. will draw every opponents best defender week in and week out. That’s a tall task for a freshman. Yogi on the other hand has proven he can score against anybody.

Hunt: I projected the Top Three Hoosier Scorers this season in an earlier piece found here. I’m sticking with my prediction James Blackmon Jr. will lead all Hoosiers scorers with an average somewhere north of 18PPG.

Q: Leading rebounder?

Grand: Troy Williams. He was a prolific rebounder in high school and showed flashes of being able to crash the glass a season ago. With a weak frontcourt, Williams should be able to pull in his fair share of boards.

Logan: Troy Williams. The combination of Troy’s high motor ability to jump out of the gym and the lack of any viable big men indicates Williams will have to bear the load.

Hunt: Troy Williams returns as the team’s second-leading rebounder from a year ago at a whopping 4.4 boards per game. I foresee a more aggressive Troy Williams around the basket, and I feel it’s not a large stretch to imagine Williams doubling that number to put him somewhere in the nine a game range. I also think Hanner can easily contribute to the team in this regard (he added 12 and 8 rebounds in two exhibition games). I still think Williams will edge Hanner a bit as he is already a fairly aggressive player, but Hanner has the potential to put up some impressive numbers.

Q: Breakout player?

Grand: Nick Zeisloft. He is going to have plenty of wide open looks from deep, where he thrives. Leave him open if you dare, because he will hit shots. He’s definitely the second-coming of Matt Roth.

Logan: Robert Johnson. Although the Hoosiers are guard heavy, the true freshman will get a shot early on with the current suspensions. He’s been in Blackmon Jr.’s shadow since arriving on campus but is a relentless competitor who always finds a way to score.

Hunt: Williams is the most athletic individual on the entire squad and has been working on his ball handling skills and jump shot. He has already proven an ability to take the ball to the basket and any improvement in his shooting aptitude will make him a difficult player to guard. Remember, in Canada Williams averaged 18.4 ppg and added 27 points in the Hoosiers’ loss to Ottawa, shooting 12-of-16 from the field. As long as Williams can get his off-court behavior in check, he will be the most exciting player on the floor to watch.

Season Prediction

Grand: 22-9, 10-8 in Big Ten play, making the NCAA tournament

Logan: 20-11, 9-9 in Big Ten play, barely making the NCAA tournament

Hunt: 21-10 (Excludes the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament games), 10-8 in Big Ten Conference Play, for 6^th place.

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