Complete Game Preview: Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes
By Will Logan
Hoosier, Hawkeye History:
Boy howdy. Who’s excited for Saturday? It seems like no matter how bad Indiana is or how great the Hawkeyes are, the Iowa game is always closer than expected. In fact, Illinois is the only B1G team that the Hoosiers have beaten more than the Hawkeyes in the last decade (Purdue and Iowa are tied with three losses to the Hoosiers).
Indiana has more wins against Iowa than any other B1G opponent other than Illinois in the past decade.
In 2006, Hoosier safety Will Meyers’ diving, one-handed interception in the Red Zone helped Indiana beat the 15th ranked Hawkeyes. Indiana beat Iowa again the next year 38-20, and the last time they played in 2012, Indiana won 24-21 in Kevin Wilson’s first B1G home win. Just imagine how this weekend’s game will be considering it’s actually supposed to be close. Speaking of what’s supposed to happen…
What They’re Saying:
- ESPN: Only two of the six writers selected the Hoosiers, but those two writers are ranked first and second among their peers in correctly picking games this year.
- FPI Rankings: 52.5% chance of Iowa win
- Vegas: Iowa opened as seven point favorites, but that has fallen to just three points
- Big Ten Network: Iowa across the board
- Athlon: Iowa across the board
Keys to Victory:
1. Win the Game on the Ground
This should be fun. The conference’s 3rd ranked Hoosier rushing attack against the 3rd ranked Hawkeye rushing defense. Better yet, the country’s 9th ranked Hoosier rushing offense against the country’s 8th ranked Hawkeye rushing defense.
Sep 27, 2014; Bloomington, IN, USA; Indiana Hoosiers running back Tevin Coleman (6) runs the ball during the second quarter and is tackled by Maryland Terrapins defensive back William Likely (4)at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports
Iowa is very good up front. They’re giving up less than 100 yards rushing a game and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all year. Only Louisville, Alabama, Florida and Stanford have given up fewer. Meanwhile, despite averaging more yards per game, being tied in rushing touchdowns, rushing for more total yards and having one less suspension than Heisman front runner Todd Gurley, Tevin Coleman is still trying to earn national attention. Playing against the nation’s 8th ranked rushing defense provides an excellent opportunity to do so this weekend.
On the flip side, neither of the two QBs Iowa has used this year have been impressive and, as always, establishing the run is going to be a huge part of Iowa’s game plan. Iowa’s early struggles (the Hawks could easily be 2-3) can be attributed to the trouble they’ve had establishing the run. They don’t rank in the top 100 nationally in yards per carry, and their top running back is only averaging 3.33 yard per carry. If the Indiana defense can shut down the already struggling Iowa rushing attack and keep the Hawks around their current 22.6 points per game average, the Hoosiers should walk out of Kinnick Stadium with their fourth win of the season Saturday.
2. Be Patient on Offense
Iowa plays a bend-but-don’t-break style defense with their main goal being to keep their opponents in front of them. They’re fine with giving up small chunks of yards, but won’t allow the big play. Obviously that’s a potential issue for an Indiana team that scored three times on plays of 40 or more yards last week. In fact, according to Football Outsiders, the Hoosiers rank 119th in the country in putting together methodical drives. No doubt the big play is a huge part of what the Hoosiers do on offense. Can the Hoosiers be patient enough to take what the defense gives them this week? Most teams aren’t against Iowa, which is exactly what makes the trap that is the Hawkeye defense work.
Sep 20, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on from the sidelines against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
3. Don’t Settle in the Red Zone
Part of the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy is tightening up in the red zone, which is in fact an area Iowa has dominated this year. They’re only allowing touchdowns on 25% of opponent trips inside the 20 yard line, which ties the Hawkeye defense with 3rd ranked Ole Miss for third in the nation. That could spell disaster for an Indiana offense ranked a lowly 88th nationally in red zone scoring. This kinda-sorta ties in to being patient on offense. Part of the reason IU is ranked so low in red zone efficiency is their tendency to forgo the field goal attempt and try to convert on fourth down. Iowa is not a high scoring team. Three points could be a huge deal in this game against a solid defense and low-scoring Iowa offense. Will the Hoosiers take the points when they’re available, or will they, again, play into the trap that Kirk Ferentz has laid?
Indiana needs three more wins to go bowling. Their three best chances are against Purdue (79.8%), Penn State (53.6%) and, you guessed it, Iowa (47.5%) according to ESPN.
Let’s get er’ done.